Managing portfolio-level uncertainty in new product development: a contemporary theoretic and field-based view

• Ano de defesa: 2025
• Autor(a) principal: Manhá, Natália de Souza
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: eng
• Instituição de defesa: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
• Palavras-chave em Português: Desenvolvimento de Novos Produtos (NPD); Gestão de incerteza; Gestão de processo de portfólio; Incerteza em nível de portfólio; New Product Development (NPD); NPD projects portfolio; Portfólio de projetos de NPD; Portfolio process management; Portfolio-level uncertainty; Uncertainty management
• Link de acesso: https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12139/tde-10122025-124618/

New Product Development (NPD) portfolio process plays a critical role in fostering innovation by enabling the generation, analysis, and selection of project proposals. While uncertainty surrounding the formulation and selection of NPD projects presents a major challenge, it is also a fundamental condition for innovation and long-term organizational survival. This research aims to investigate how uncertainty is managed in the portfolio process of NPD projects. To address a significant theoretical gap in the literature, which tends to focus on risk rather than uncertainty, this study prioritizes the concept of uncertainty management. A qualitative and exploratory multiple case study was conducted with organizations recognized for their innovative capabilities. This empirical approach allows for an in-depth examination of how uncertainty is addressed at the portfolio level, with special attention to decision points, classification schemes, and portfolio strategies. The research addresses three central questions: (1) How is the portfolio management process structured under conditions of uncertainty? (2) How are uncertainties identified, classified, and prioritized at key decision points? (3) How are these uncertainties managed, both individually and in their interaction? Regarding the structure of portfolio management under uncertainty, the findings show how organizations adopt adaptive governance models, combining formal stage-gate structures with flexible review mechanisms. Second, concerning the identification, classification, and prioritization of uncertainty, the research reveals how frameworks such as TRL, innovation horizons, and benefitmaturity matrices are applied to segment and compare initiatives. Third, in terms of managing uncertainty throughout the portfolio, the results highlight practices such as failure-based learning. By triangulating empirical insights with existing theory, this work contributes to a better understanding of how leading organizations navigate uncertainty in NPD portfolios, offering practical implications for improving strategic alignment, adaptability, and innovation outcomes.