Proposta de um framework para análise de viabilidade econômica de projetos de investimentos agropecuários

• Ano de defesa: 2020
• Autor(a) principal: Vilani, Leonir
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná; Pato Branco; Brasil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção e Sistemas; UTFPR
• Palavras-chave em Português: Agroindústria; Investimento - Análise; Estudos de viabilidade; Framework (Arquivo de computador); Métodos de simulação; Agricultural industries; Investment analysis; Feasibility studies; Framework (Computer file); Simulation methods; CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO; Engenharia/Tecnologia/Gestão
• Link de acesso: http://repositorio.utfpr.edu.br/jspui/handle/1/4914

Over the past 25 years, changes in agribusiness have been significant. The planted area had an increase of 58%, going from 38.5 million ha in 1991 to 60.7 million ha in 2017. The production went from 68.4 million tons in 1991 to 238.2 million tons in 2017, representing an increase of 248%. Observing the characteristics of the agricultural sector, it is identified that the variability of events is a preponderant. This makes it notoriously difficult to choose how to evaluate Agricultural Investment Projects (PIA). In this context, the objective of this work was to develop a framework to support the analysis of the Economic Viability (VE) of PIA, incorporating the specificities and complexities of each project. The framework was built based on the analysis of the results of the Systematic Literature Review (RSL) and studies related to the theme, where it was possible to identify the main specificities and complexities of the PIA. With this information, we sought the best methodology or technique for analyzing VE of PI that considers each of the specificities and complexities. The framework was used in case studies to illustrate its functionality, identifying advantages and limitations. The first PIA analyzed was the replacement of an equipment used in milk production, analyzing the implementation of a milking machine with more technology. With the application of the framework, the results were satisfactory, presenting high level return and medium level risks. Thus, the implementation of the PIA is suggested, as the results present it as economically viable. The second project is the production of pecan nut. After the application of the framework, it is concluded that this production is economically viable, presenting high returns and low risks. The third case study analyzed was the implementation of an Agroforestry System (SAF), in a large rural property. The presence of uncertainties and Management Flexibilities (FG), led the framework to direct the analysis to the use of the Real Options Theory (TOR). The EV analysis showed positive results, even submitting the Net Present Value (VPL) to risk situations. It was verified that the information generated in the analyses developed using the framework was sufficient to assist in decision making. The main contribution of the framework is to present a sequence, which can be defined as a guideline, for performing the VE analysis of PIA. In this way, users who do not master the analysis techniques can structure studies and use the appropriate methodologies for each project.