Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural

Detalhes bibliográficos
Ano de defesa: 2016
Autor(a) principal: Bisognini, Kátia Vieira
Orientador(a): Mori, Rogério
Banca de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
Idioma: por
Instituição de defesa: Não Informado pela instituição
Programa de Pós-Graduação: Não Informado pela instituição
Departamento: Não Informado pela instituição
País: Não Informado pela instituição
Palavras-chave em Português:
Política fiscal
VAR estrutural
Palavras-chave em Inglês:
Fiscal policy
Structural VAR
Public debt
Link de acesso: http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17025
Resumo: The public debt sustainability is essential for the development and growth of a country. Countries that seek economic expansion in the short/medium term without maintaining a sustainable fiscal policy can incur to the problem of explosive trajectory of public debt, compromising their development and growth in the long term. This work aims to analyze the dynamics of Brazilian public debt through the structural vector autoregressive approach (SVAR) during the period of 2003 to 2015. For that, the model proposed by Apergis and Cooray (2015) to analyze the Greek public debt will be used as reference. However, adaptations were necessary to adequate the model to the Brazilian reality. Even if the adequacy of the model, the results obtained did not have adherence compatible with the economic theory, possibly due to the shocks that occurred in Brazil during this period. It is suggested the development of future studies to improve the model in order to get consistent results, like the reference model results.
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spelling Bisognini, Kátia VieiraEscolas::EESPMarçal, Emerson FernandesCosta Junior, Celso JoséMori, RogérioMori, Rogério2016-09-08T16:52:50Z2016-09-08T16:52:50Z2016-08-10BISOGNINI, Kátia Vieira. Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Finanças e Economia) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2016.http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17025The public debt sustainability is essential for the development and growth of a country. Countries that seek economic expansion in the short/medium term without maintaining a sustainable fiscal policy can incur to the problem of explosive trajectory of public debt, compromising their development and growth in the long term. This work aims to analyze the dynamics of Brazilian public debt through the structural vector autoregressive approach (SVAR) during the period of 2003 to 2015. For that, the model proposed by Apergis and Cooray (2015) to analyze the Greek public debt will be used as reference. However, adaptations were necessary to adequate the model to the Brazilian reality. Even if the adequacy of the model, the results obtained did not have adherence compatible with the economic theory, possibly due to the shocks that occurred in Brazil during this period. It is suggested the development of future studies to improve the model in order to get consistent results, like the reference model results.A sustentabilidade da dívida pública de um país é essencial para seu desenvolvimento e crescimento econômico. Países que buscam uma expansão econômica no curto/médio prazo sem manter uma política fiscal sustentável podem incorrer ao problema de trajetória explosiva da dívida pública, comprometendo seu desenvolvimento e crescimento no longo prazo. O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar a dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil através da ótica do modelo de vetor autorregressivo estrutural (SVAR) durante o período de 2003 a 2015. Para isto será utilizado como referência o modelo proposto por Apergis e Cooray (2015) para analisar a dinâmica da dívida pública grega. No entanto, adaptações foram necessárias para adequar o modelo a realidade do Brasil. Mesmo com a adaptação do modelo, os resultados obtidos não tiveram uma aderência compatível com a teoria econômica, possivelmente devido aos choques que ocorreram no Brasil durante este período. Sugere-se o desenvolvimento de estudos futuros para o aperfeiçoamento do modelo, a fim de se obter um resultado consistente e mais próximo aos resultados do modelo de referência.porFiscal policyStructural VARPublic debtPolítica fiscalVAR estruturalEconomiaDívida pública - BrasilDesenvolvimento econômicoBrasil - Política econômicaPolítica monetáriaModelos econométricosDinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estruturalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital)instname:Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)instacron:FGVinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessTEXT01-DISSERTAÇÃO-KBISOGNINI-20160906.pdf.txt01-DISSERTAÇÃO-KBISOGNINI-20160906.pdf.txtExtracted 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural
title Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural
spellingShingle Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural
Bisognini, Kátia Vieira
Fiscal policy
Structural VAR
Public debt
Política fiscal
VAR estrutural
Economia
Dívida pública - Brasil
Desenvolvimento econômico
Brasil - Política econômica
Política monetária
Modelos econométricos
title_short Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural
title_full Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural
title_fullStr Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural
title_full_unstemmed Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural
title_sort Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural
author Bisognini, Kátia Vieira
author_facet Bisognini, Kátia Vieira
author_role author
dc.contributor.unidadefgv.por.fl_str_mv Escolas::EESP
dc.contributor.member.none.fl_str_mv Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
Costa Junior, Celso José
Mori, Rogério
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Bisognini, Kátia Vieira
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Mori, Rogério
contributor_str_mv Mori, Rogério
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Fiscal policy
Structural VAR
Public debt
topic Fiscal policy
Structural VAR
Public debt
Política fiscal
VAR estrutural
Economia
Dívida pública - Brasil
Desenvolvimento econômico
Brasil - Política econômica
Política monetária
Modelos econométricos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Política fiscal
VAR estrutural
dc.subject.area.por.fl_str_mv Economia
dc.subject.bibliodata.por.fl_str_mv Dívida pública - Brasil
Desenvolvimento econômico
Brasil - Política econômica
Política monetária
Modelos econométricos
description The public debt sustainability is essential for the development and growth of a country. Countries that seek economic expansion in the short/medium term without maintaining a sustainable fiscal policy can incur to the problem of explosive trajectory of public debt, compromising their development and growth in the long term. This work aims to analyze the dynamics of Brazilian public debt through the structural vector autoregressive approach (SVAR) during the period of 2003 to 2015. For that, the model proposed by Apergis and Cooray (2015) to analyze the Greek public debt will be used as reference. However, adaptations were necessary to adequate the model to the Brazilian reality. Even if the adequacy of the model, the results obtained did not have adherence compatible with the economic theory, possibly due to the shocks that occurred in Brazil during this period. It is suggested the development of future studies to improve the model in order to get consistent results, like the reference model results.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2016-09-08T16:52:50Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2016-09-08T16:52:50Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2016-08-10
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
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status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv BISOGNINI, Kátia Vieira. Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Finanças e Economia) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2016.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17025
identifier_str_mv BISOGNINI, Kátia Vieira. Dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil: uma aplicação do modelo VAR estrutural. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Finanças e Economia) - FGV - Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo, 2016.
url http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17025
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dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
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