Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul
Ano de defesa: | 2017 |
---|---|
Autor(a) principal: | |
Orientador(a): | |
Banca de defesa: | |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Idioma: | por |
Instituição de defesa: |
Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do Sul
|
Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Economia do Desenvolvimento
|
Departamento: |
Escola de Neg?cios
|
País: |
Brasil
|
Palavras-chave em Português: | |
Área do conhecimento CNPq: | |
Link de acesso: | http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7797 |
Resumo: | This thesis approaches the theme of crime in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) through four essays. The first one is devoted to an in-depth discussion of crimes in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, emphasizing the problems related to the raw rates estimations, especially in small municipalities. This article, in addition to making an extensive descriptive analysis of municipal crime in RS, seeks to overcome the problems of estimation by using the Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach to create aggregate crime rates. Using the law penalties for each crime type, we also created disaggregated indexes against economic patrimony and against life and the approach used was efficient in reducing the variability of municipalities with high volatility. The second article assess the effect of luminosity on RS crimes, estimating the effect of the Daylight Savnig Time (DST). Several discontinuous regressions, both at the beggining of DST and at the end, were estimated. Possible effects were controlled, as weekday and climatological variables, and the results indicate that, mostly, there is no significant effect of DST on RS crimes. These results were robust to different model specifications. The third refers to a new tool for interactive data visualization of criminal occurrences in RS, CrimeVis. This visualization platform is constructed using Shiny technology and the R language with several types of visualizations. This article discusses the importance of data visualization, exemplifies the construction of CrimeVis through codes and shows how it is a powerful device for understanding the criminal dynamics of RS. The fourth, and last, essay seeks to study the temporality and space-temporality of crimes in RS through Markov Chains. This article estimates the transition probabilities and odds ratios of municipalities between absence/presence of crime of an initial period in relation to a presence/absence of a final period. In addition, the spatial neighborhood joint effect of the initial period is also measured. Evidence has shown that there is a displacement of cars robbery to the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre and a strong neighborhood effect in the most recent transition from 2015-2016, a temporal stability in homicides (with space-time neighborhood effects) and narcotics tracking with denned regions of occurrence between the north and the south of the state and a highlighted structural break in the crimes related to the arms and ammunition between the year of 2003 and 2004. |
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Fochezatto, Adelarhttp://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4728888Y6http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4484755E2Cortes, Renan Xavier2018-01-04T15:41:55Z2017-12-18http://tede2.pucrs.br/tede2/handle/tede/7797This thesis approaches the theme of crime in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) through four essays. The first one is devoted to an in-depth discussion of crimes in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, emphasizing the problems related to the raw rates estimations, especially in small municipalities. This article, in addition to making an extensive descriptive analysis of municipal crime in RS, seeks to overcome the problems of estimation by using the Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach to create aggregate crime rates. Using the law penalties for each crime type, we also created disaggregated indexes against economic patrimony and against life and the approach used was efficient in reducing the variability of municipalities with high volatility. The second article assess the effect of luminosity on RS crimes, estimating the effect of the Daylight Savnig Time (DST). Several discontinuous regressions, both at the beggining of DST and at the end, were estimated. Possible effects were controlled, as weekday and climatological variables, and the results indicate that, mostly, there is no significant effect of DST on RS crimes. These results were robust to different model specifications. The third refers to a new tool for interactive data visualization of criminal occurrences in RS, CrimeVis. This visualization platform is constructed using Shiny technology and the R language with several types of visualizations. This article discusses the importance of data visualization, exemplifies the construction of CrimeVis through codes and shows how it is a powerful device for understanding the criminal dynamics of RS. The fourth, and last, essay seeks to study the temporality and space-temporality of crimes in RS through Markov Chains. This article estimates the transition probabilities and odds ratios of municipalities between absence/presence of crime of an initial period in relation to a presence/absence of a final period. In addition, the spatial neighborhood joint effect of the initial period is also measured. Evidence has shown that there is a displacement of cars robbery to the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre and a strong neighborhood effect in the most recent transition from 2015-2016, a temporal stability in homicides (with space-time neighborhood effects) and narcotics tracking with denned regions of occurrence between the north and the south of the state and a highlighted structural break in the crimes related to the arms and ammunition between the year of 2003 and 2004.Esta tese aborda o tema da criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul (RS) atrav?s de quatro ensaios. O primeiro se dedica a fazer uma discuss?o aprofundada dos crimes nos munic?pios ga?chos, enfatizando os problemas relacionados a estima??es de taxas brutas, principalmente em munic?pios pequenos. Este artigo, al em de fazer uma extensa an?lise descritiva da criminalidade municipal no RS, busca contornar os problemas de estima??o fazendo uso da abordagem bayesiana Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) a m de criar ?ndices agregados de criminalidade. Utilizando as penas previstas em leis, criou-se tamb?m ?ndices desagregados contra o patrim?nio e contra a vida e a abordagem utilizada se mostrou e ciente na redu??o de variabilidade de munic?pios com alta vari?ncia. O segundo artigo avalia o efeito da luminosidade na criminalidade ga?cha estimando o efeito do hor?rio de ver?o (HV). Diversas regress?es em descontinuidade, tanto no per?odo de in?cio do HV, quanto no final, foram estimadas. Poss?veis efeitos foram controlados, como o dia da semana e vari?veis climatol?gicas, e os resultados apontam que, majoritariamente, n?o existe efeito significativo do HV na criminalidade do RS. Estes resultados se mostraram robustos a diferentes especia??es dos modelos. O terceiro se refere a uma nova ferramenta de visualiza??o de dados interativa das ocorr?ncias criminais no RS, o CrimeVis. Esta plataforma de visualiza??o e constru?da usando a tecnologia Shiny e a linguagem R com diversos tipos de visualiza??es. Este artigo discute a import?ncia da visualiza??o de dados, exemplica a constru??o do CrimeVis atrav?s de c?digos e mostra como que ele se configura um dispositivo poderoso para compreens?o da din?mica criminal ga?cha. O quarto, e ?ltimo, ensaio busca estudar a temporalidade e a espa?o-temporalidade dos crimes no RS atrav?s de Cadeias de Markov. Este artigo estima as probabilidades de transi??o e raz?es de chance dos munic?pios ga?chos entre os estados de aus?ncia/presen?a de crime de um per odo inicial em rela??o a presen?a/aus?ncia de um per?odo final. Ademais, o efeito conjunto espacial de vizinhan?a no per?odo inicial tamb?m e medido. As evid?ncias mostraram que existe um deslocamento de roubo de ve?culos para a regi?o metropolitana de Porto Alegre e um forte efeito de vizinhan?a na transi??o mais recente 2015-2016, uma estabilidade temporal em homic?dios (com efeito espa?o-temporal de vizinhan?a) e tra?o de entorpecentes com regi?es de ocorr?ncia definidas entre o norte e o sul do estado e uma quebra estrutural acentuada nos delitos relacionados a armas e muni??es entre o ano de 2003 e 2004.Submitted by PPG Economia do desenvolvimento (economia-pg@pucrs.br) on 2018-01-03T16:46:44Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RENAN_XAVIER_CORTES_TES.pdf: 20384412 bytes, checksum: f40a7494708d28f04370760395930efc (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Tatiana Lopes (tatiana.lopes@pucrs.br) on 2018-01-04T15:31:28Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 RENAN_XAVIER_CORTES_TES.pdf: 20384412 bytes, checksum: f40a7494708d28f04370760395930efc (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-04T15:41:55Z (GMT). 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dc.title.por.fl_str_mv |
Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul |
title |
Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul |
spellingShingle |
Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul Cortes, Renan Xavier ?ndice de Criminalidade Municipal Infer?ncia Bayesiana Hor?rio de Ver?o Visualiza??o de Dados Cadeias de Markov CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul |
title_full |
Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul |
title_fullStr |
Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul |
title_sort |
Ensaios em Criminalidade no Rio Grande do Sul |
author |
Cortes, Renan Xavier |
author_facet |
Cortes, Renan Xavier |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Fochezatto, Adelar |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4728888Y6 |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4484755E2 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cortes, Renan Xavier |
contributor_str_mv |
Fochezatto, Adelar |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
?ndice de Criminalidade Municipal Infer?ncia Bayesiana Hor?rio de Ver?o Visualiza??o de Dados Cadeias de Markov |
topic |
?ndice de Criminalidade Municipal Infer?ncia Bayesiana Hor?rio de Ver?o Visualiza??o de Dados Cadeias de Markov CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv |
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
This thesis approaches the theme of crime in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) through four essays. The first one is devoted to an in-depth discussion of crimes in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, emphasizing the problems related to the raw rates estimations, especially in small municipalities. This article, in addition to making an extensive descriptive analysis of municipal crime in RS, seeks to overcome the problems of estimation by using the Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach to create aggregate crime rates. Using the law penalties for each crime type, we also created disaggregated indexes against economic patrimony and against life and the approach used was efficient in reducing the variability of municipalities with high volatility. The second article assess the effect of luminosity on RS crimes, estimating the effect of the Daylight Savnig Time (DST). Several discontinuous regressions, both at the beggining of DST and at the end, were estimated. Possible effects were controlled, as weekday and climatological variables, and the results indicate that, mostly, there is no significant effect of DST on RS crimes. These results were robust to different model specifications. The third refers to a new tool for interactive data visualization of criminal occurrences in RS, CrimeVis. This visualization platform is constructed using Shiny technology and the R language with several types of visualizations. This article discusses the importance of data visualization, exemplifies the construction of CrimeVis through codes and shows how it is a powerful device for understanding the criminal dynamics of RS. The fourth, and last, essay seeks to study the temporality and space-temporality of crimes in RS through Markov Chains. This article estimates the transition probabilities and odds ratios of municipalities between absence/presence of crime of an initial period in relation to a presence/absence of a final period. In addition, the spatial neighborhood joint effect of the initial period is also measured. Evidence has shown that there is a displacement of cars robbery to the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre and a strong neighborhood effect in the most recent transition from 2015-2016, a temporal stability in homicides (with space-time neighborhood effects) and narcotics tracking with denned regions of occurrence between the north and the south of the state and a highlighted structural break in the crimes related to the arms and ammunition between the year of 2003 and 2004. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2017-12-18 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2018-01-04T15:41:55Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do Sul |
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Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Economia do Desenvolvimento |
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PUCRS |
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Brasil |
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Escola de Neg?cios |
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Pontif?cia Universidade Cat?lica do Rio Grande do Sul |
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