Essays on economics of natural disasters in Brazil

• Ano de defesa: 2023
• Autor(a) principal: Alves, Pedro Jorge Holanda Figueiredo
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Instituição de defesa: Universidade Católica de Brasília; Escola de Humanidades, Negócios e Direito; Brasil; UCB; Programa Stricto Sensu em Economia de Empresas
• Palavras-chave em Português: Natural Disasters; Brazil; Establishments; Flash flood; Landslides; Disaster risk management policies; Desastres naturais; Brasil; Estabelecimentos; Enxurrada; Deslizamentos de terra; Políticas de gerenciamento de risco de desastres; CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
• Link de acesso: https://bdtd.ucb.br:8443/jspui/handle/tede/3304

This thesis encompasses three chapters that empirically analyze the effects of natural disasters in Brazil. Below are the abstracts for the respective chapters. Chapter 1: Evaluating the Efficacy of Disaster Risk Management Policies in Brazilian Municipalities. This paper examines the effectiveness of local disaster risk management (DRM) policies in mitigating flood occurrence in Brazilian municipalities. Specifically, we analyze the impact of four DRM policies: general flood regulations, flood risk mapping, supervision of flood-prone areas, and warning systems. Using a two-way fixed effect (TWFE) approach and municipal data from 2013-2019, we find that heavy rainfall triggers floods in directly exposed areas and increases the probability of flood occurrence in neighboring municipalities, indicating the existence of spatial spillovers. However, the adoption of DRM policies is not able to mitigate the effects of rainfall on flood occurrence, indicating that these policies are not effective in our context. Chapter 2: The impact of Flash floods on the Spatial Distribution of Firms and Workers This paper analyzes how a natural disaster affects the spatial distribution of establishments and workers, using the 2008 Santa Catarina Flash Flood, considered one of the biggest disasters in recent Brazilian history, as a natural experiment. We combined synthetic-aperture radar images that show the exact location of flood spots with georeferenced employer-employee data to estimate the impact of the disaster through a difference-in-differences approach. Our results show that the affected establishments have a higher chance of closure but do not adjust to the shock through business relocation or entry. Workers dismissed in the wave of disaster are less likely to find a new job and are slightly less likely to migrate. As the effects persist over the years, our evidence indicates a transition to a new spatial equilibrium. Chapter 3: Natural Disasters and Establishment Performance: Evidence from the 2011 Rio de Janeiro Landslides. This paper investigates the economic consequences of the 2011 Rio de Janeiro landslides, considered the worst weather-related natural disaster that occurred in Brazil. We evaluated the effect of the disaster on the business establishment performance and investigated the role of the main recovery policy designed for exposed business: the subsidized credit provided by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). To define the affected establishments, we use georeferenced data of landslide points and calculate a simulated coverage radius of each specific point based on a prediction model of maximum run-out distance. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach, we show that establishments exposed to the disaster reacted to the unexpected shock by reducing the number of employees rather than closing their business or cutting the wages. Also, the establishments affected by the shock increased their probability of obtaining subsidized credit. This increase in subsidized credit was partially effective in mitigating the negative effects of the shock since it prevented the exposed companies from closing but did not revert the job losses.