Predição e análise de risco da produção de forragem de gliricídia no semiárido brasileiro

• Ano de defesa: 2022
• Autor(a) principal: Santos, José Lucas Guedes dos
• Orientador(a): Cândido, Magno José Duarte
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Tipo de acesso: Acesso aberto
• Idioma: por
• Palavras-chave em Português: Gliricidia sepium; Garantia mínima; Modelo PHYGROW; Orçamentação forrageira; Simulação de Monte Carlo
• Link de acesso: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69633

The climate variability that occurs in Semiarid regions is a source of risk and uncertainties for forage production. Thus, it is necessary, the use of tools that make it possible to estimate the forage production with good precision, allowing the adequate planning of the livestock activity in the region. The aim was to estimate the biomass production of gliricidia [Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.) Kunth ex. Walp.] and evaluate its natural warranty production through modeling techniques, with subsequent use of this information to assess the acclimatization of the crop to different ecological sites in the Brazilian Semiarid region and consequent forage planning. Data collection was carried out between 2018 and 2021 in six technological reference units (TRUs) located in representative municipalities of the Brazilian Semiarid region. Field data were used to model the total forage biomass (TFB) production of gliricidia using the PHYGROW® Phytomass Growth. After this step, a historical series of 71 years of biomass production was generated, and the data were submitted to the adherence test to identify the probability density function (PDF). Subsequently, 10,000 values were generated based on the PDF, which were submitted to risk analysis, considering the natural warranty production concept. The PHYGROW underestimated the TFB collected in three of the six scenarios studied. The Weibull function was the one that best fitted the historical series data for all the studied TRUs. For the analysis of the natural warranty production, considering the average of all TRUs studied for a natural warranty of 95%, it was observed that gliricidia had a productivity of 2028±1357 kg of DM ha-1 harvest-1, that is, for a 20 year scenario, at least such average productivity is expected in 19 years. Based on the statistical evaluations performed, the PHYGROW was able to satisfactorily simulate the forage production of gliricidia. The risk analysis, through the natural warranty, can contribute to the improvement of forage planning in the Brazilian Semiarid region. Gliricidia showed a good level of adaptation to the different conditions studied.