Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais
| Ano de defesa: | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Autor(a) principal: | |
| Orientador(a): | |
| Banca de defesa: | |
| Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
| Tipo de acesso: | Acesso aberto |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Instituição de defesa: |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
|
| Programa de Pós-Graduação: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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| Departamento: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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| País: |
Não Informado pela instituição
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| Palavras-chave em Português: | |
| Link de acesso: | https://hdl.handle.net/1843/77521 |
Resumo: | CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior |
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oai:repositorio.ufmg.br:1843/77521 |
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2024-10-18T20:30:12Z2025-09-09T00:47:05Z2024-10-18T20:30:12Z2024-07-12https://hdl.handle.net/1843/77521CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorengUniversidade Federal de Minas Geraishttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pt/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMudanças climáticasAgriculturaEconomiaClimate ChangeAgricultureMinas GeraisComputable General Equilibrium ModelClimate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Geraisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisDeborah Lopes Ferreirareponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGhttps://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K1187859Y0&tokenCaptchar=03AFcWeA7jSZ6FQsX_2vz8b1aFkO08aHQ5sc5r4mjxnefcSD3_jqVS0U4taIz-t4s8LCUuryKQtM8GBnvkfBNzrWkoDLDr4s6-e7z0DmIuhWXNlHEwYFYAIZghf77BgD13cYtilQFrNwgbOKwbrsdMZgXzPxVpa03ARUVPa0AxjkkrMm-0MDDSbqODs4CZXsFyoglOs8JLlAww9UGYVuz0jackJeyILNkrqUOBpLIIc1PY_NSbiv7PXAPiN8VVa_LztcPYXSOTjUwVv8rf8aNsvf_6oXJk1jg6KMwoPB_UutURN8ANKrpNgeLSXU4ltaKrqnJhc4t02231NDnT5tK_CnZWR7IIETsIhCi1BA0Nj829saZBpUK3gJKsUWQOneKHffEt5cJ85n_Oj9mSBMCNESYQVaCa5sagp-4UJ526KjXubue5CEYVWdXr6yFEBgnytirF2msG7KGA5--k1LieEGKP1_EnfayTj128lAFLGfiwWydnQgvZwReqL7xxsUXjAa1thPWvLsxpgnG50lEhb6AH2sCoOoZgESKlI8VypsKsOgdag2i2IqjvbrzN4mLIcFehWjsf-eisp0QV_5WtLpC4CkxtIguSfulw1uyncpqqD0YL8mBbguZt8OYNAmpE2Vt2maDVaJ0cJqPXo02HcKKppw_E9aA11Bt8IZqvevtciZFfr9lDlzhsWoPMvQmeCQTA1_CpjI_aGWH7oj1saHfZ1_dVL_u0Y975Zyf45rSRnnKndgnMt8K2A3F3RkyVjPSMQK-A8O4VUpnlcL9JLQqOCzEnYnJW4bTNvnw7c1aaYUhP4CBrFYDivh--LxP9eCe2r4M4gQhIPO00QP95YJtG43VHuHQ63gAline Souza Magalhaeshttps://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?id=K4204981P9&tokenCaptchar=03AFcWeA5iUgBh3X_vuLQAFT5ClIE-gJxa7nslQVeB0uXGLWB8iAN4ba7HBLIcVumyPQZwR0fPWEU2GYXy-LBlVVDHJ_ZBm0bwpo9Q94b0P9YPVEeq1vZSh2Ll3XwdP_4m_hC0RjMutP1SVA4rG7A2DeO_BpouF0pqCne7HbwdSt26fWmVJeLVVdyZdzPRM8MoprW45Tvm70zOcaOs9vsElnatYw_esIYtk7qPz4cFhS6LuRAn2L2h_VHxkm2nom7eMRv-K1FdiC6LsxkWfMK7WEjWD4n8rXUOiBJPzOsijX3iu0ZQ2WrYer76hp0x3YfQGKynKdSi0tgSa4Ci0dtkCrUyCQCf7TQVHhU7SV9UDXrZa13IO3zZ9HRe3n_cjE6ZeDO7oOY6MVGur13VwLthyNt403CR8lib-oeG6yiF1ZB_xHcDHyKJQug0uvMeICfes43jz_BPl1LpVKikwTLePjgtcEjd9z_9daxNFXo6RC10hcMevBqcTmYRTo75kqLZgBSGE3PsXhXB0xVTmPpYR7dEcmnX-dnfFaoYgllf_fFsKXBZmTsw_16Tg2rINFf3lm2uChQSAwrng-xer8VTU-SEQKhIdLyIVpfC-3R5Nwtd1DNABglH5-hbKLwx3oj6QghIO8Zv87LvAJszL6Vkbk4idbD0UoBQ2dGcpSkYBZLTORL8MV_2w-eJTgP_aNe5x5BamNtc3ZJdN20FrBQC-xl68puY-GKrTI2d2bB74OObOQ-U-T8NXN0NzYJ1YjIsofkK0wN4JMcaC4wW179XM2_aYgx9k6NOWsKpts_RJWhKv1vHuMqlCP3A0SA5HfDs_hMBpCkh6jK_YmJ4GxyMfQTc3TQzbHep9gTarik TanureEdson Paulo DominguesThis study investigates the future economic impacts of climate change in Minas Gerais, Brazil, using an econometric model and a Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Initially, the econometric model estimates variations in agricultural productivity due to climate factors for seven crops, based on regional climate scenarios from the Eta-CPTEC climate model. The scenarios considered are RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 from the 6th IPCC report. These estimates serve as productivity shocks in the CGE model, specifically IMAGEM-MG, developed from the Brazilian IMAGEM-B model and following the Australian TERM Model framework for disaggregated regional and sectoral analyses. The results reveal a distinct spatial pattern, with climatic effects on Minas Gerais’s economy varying significantly across regions. Generally, GDP and other key indicators would undergo reductions under both climate scenarios. Regions heavily dependent on agriculture, like Patos de Minas, would face the most significant deviations, while areas like Pouso Alegre, with less agricultural dependence and favorable conditions for crops like coffee, would experience the least reductions. Notably, the poorest regions are not necessarily the most affected by GDP reduction. Regions in the north and northeast of Minas, where agricultural activity is predominantly composed of small-scale farmers, may be severely impacted, exacerbating regional disparities. While most crops show productivity reductions, some regions would experience gains in specific crops, like sugarcane in Uberaba and Uberlândia and oranges in Barbacena. However, these gains do not offset the overall decline in economic activity compared to a scenario without climate change, likely due to spill-over effects on sectors dependent on agriculture.BrasilPrograma de Pós-Graduação em EconomiaUFMGORIGINALDissertacao_Deborah_Final.pdfapplication/pdf11953373https://repositorio.ufmg.br//bitstreams/c3646273-35a1-424b-8121-17ea57052b39/downloadb09ab6adb9e486bc4d2a26e709e6f091MD51trueAnonymousREADCC-LICENSElicense_rdfapplication/octet-stream811https://repositorio.ufmg.br//bitstreams/be449e40-8a0e-4431-ab14-fb3cb7931740/downloadcfd6801dba008cb6adbd9838b81582abMD52falseAnonymousREADLICENSElicense.txttext/plain2118https://repositorio.ufmg.br//bitstreams/38204080-7ef1-44f3-bd3e-5ac1de7c862c/downloadcda590c95a0b51b4d15f60c9642ca272MD53falseAnonymousREAD1843/775212025-09-08 21:47:05.614http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pt/Acesso Abertoopen.accessoai:repositorio.ufmg.br:1843/77521https://repositorio.ufmg.br/Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oairepositorio@ufmg.bropendoar:2025-09-09T00:47:05Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)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 |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais |
| title |
Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais |
| spellingShingle |
Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais Deborah Lopes Ferreira Climate Change Agriculture Minas Gerais Computable General Equilibrium Model Mudanças climáticas Agricultura Economia |
| title_short |
Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais |
| title_full |
Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais |
| title_fullStr |
Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais |
| title_sort |
Climate change scenario: effects on agricultural productivity and economic impacts in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais |
| author |
Deborah Lopes Ferreira |
| author_facet |
Deborah Lopes Ferreira |
| author_role |
author |
| dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Deborah Lopes Ferreira |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Climate Change Agriculture Minas Gerais Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| topic |
Climate Change Agriculture Minas Gerais Computable General Equilibrium Model Mudanças climáticas Agricultura Economia |
| dc.subject.other.none.fl_str_mv |
Mudanças climáticas Agricultura Economia |
| description |
CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior |
| publishDate |
2024 |
| dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2024-10-18T20:30:12Z 2025-09-09T00:47:05Z |
| dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2024-10-18T20:30:12Z |
| dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2024-07-12 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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masterThesis |
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publishedVersion |
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https://hdl.handle.net/1843/77521 |
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eng |
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eng |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/pt/ |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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